by If restrictions in NCR are relaxed to very loose levels, the region will be under a constant threat of a surge due to the increased mobility of people, reduced social distancing, and diminished compliance with health protocols, as was observed at the outset of the December holidays…. For this model, we use the reproduction number Rt = 1.6 observed in Cebu City, which is comparable to the reproduction number observed in Mountain Province and Kalinga, when new cases increased in January. Under these assumptions, NCR will reach 2,400 new cases per day by March 26, a window [of] just 36 days.
