The alliance may force the Congress to rework some of its strategy for the election. The party won in 2017 as a result of a rainbow coalition gaining Dalit votes from the BSP, upper-caste Hindu votes from the BJP, and Jat Sikh votes from SAD.
Now each of these vote banks may be in danger. The SAD-BSP alliance would no doubt try to win Dalit support from the Congress and Jat Sikh support from both the AAP and the Congress. The BJP, on the other hand, will try and win back its Hindu upper-caste vote. Though it has been trying to woo Dalits as well, this doesn’t seem to have yielded much so far.
The Congress would have to work extra hard to retain these vote banks.
While the a split in Jatt Sikh votes between the SAD, the Congress, and the AAP is almost certain, it may get further complicated if a section of those involved in farmers’ protests decide to enter the political arena.
Given the splintering of the Jatt Sikh votes, a great deal would depend on Dalit votes and upper-caste Hindu votes.
Dalits have different subdivisions in Punjab the BSP has been more powerful among Ravidasis and less among the Mazhabis and the Valmikis.
The Congress may have to factor in a loss in some support from Jatt Sikhs and the Ravidasis and try to consolidate the Mazhabi and upper-caste Hindu votes. It won’t be surprising if the Congress accommodates leaders belonging to these sections in prominent positions soon, especially following the report on Punjab affairs submitted by the three-member panel to party Chief Sonia Gandhi.
The SAD-BSP alliance is important for two politicians whose power has been on the wane of late Mayawati and Sukhbir Singh Badal. While for Mayawati, the alliance is a step towards reviving her national relevance, for Badal this is an attempt to remove the pariah status that the SAD had acquired due to the sacrilege cases and the party’s initial support for Modi’s farm laws.
While defeating the Congress or even removing the stain of sacrilege cases and the farm laws may not be easy for the Akalis, the alliance with the BSP is a step towards its revival and emergence as the main Opposition in Punjab.
