by Predicting if it is going to rain for Christmas lunch this far out is a bit like guessing at your Christmas presents: you might have a pretty good idea, it could even be better than expected, but beware of potential disappointment.
Key points:
- Rain and storms are forecast for Christmas Day for the east and north, but it is tipped to be fine in the south of the country
- Tropical moisture is expected to hang around with a low pressure system forecast to form over the Kimberley in the coming days
- Conditions are likely to be mostly dry for the opening day of the Boxing Day Test and north easterly winds could speed up the start of the Sydney to Hobart
Nevertheless, at seven sleeps to go, the Bureau of Meteorology is ready to take a stab.
Dean Narramore, senior meteorologist at the BOM, says the first look at the Christmas forecast suggests showers and thunderstorms will be on the cards for Christmas Day for the north and the east of the country.
But southern Australia is looking fine and warm to hot for the big day.
Western Australia
Perth is looking hot in the lead-up to Christmas, with Tuesday and Wednesday forecast to get up to 38 degrees Celsius.
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Severe heatwave conditions are possible.
But by Christmas Day, temperatures are expected to calm down into the low 30s.
“A beautiful beach day, with just the chance of a shower here or there,” Mr Narramore said.
Meanwhile, monsoonal conditions are expected to continue in the north of the state.
South Australia
Christmas Day in South Australia’s south is shaping up to be beautiful, according to Mr Narramore, with temps in the mid to high 20s.
For the tough few in northern South Australia over Christmas, the expected warmer conditions will not come as a huge surprise.
There could even be a few showers and thunderstorms for northern SA.
It is shaping up to be a soggy Christmas day for eastern and northern Australia the south could stay dry.(ABC News: James Dunlevie)
Northern Territory
In the tropics, it is business as usual showers and storms are expected.
Darwin is forecast to reach around 30C.
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In the meantime, flooding is likely for the NT and the Kimberly in the coming days as a low pressure system moves through.
Down in the Alice, it is expected to be warm and sunny for Christmas Day.
Queensland
It’s expected to be wet in the sunshine state.
“Widespread rain, showers, and thunderstorm activity is expected for much of the state,” according to Mr Narramore.
“Great news, I know, for some of our inland communities but not so great for the south-east where it has already been pretty wet.”
Brisbane is forecast to be mid 20s with showers and a possible storm.
Mr Narramore didn’t mention the high humidity, but it is a pretty safe assumption this time of year.
“Flooding is definitely a concern, particularly where these storms form over already saturated creeks and river systems,” he said.
Mr Narramore says those in south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales need to be aware of their surroundings in the coming days and in the lead-up to Christmas with more heavy rain and storms leading to localised flash flooding and road closures.
As always folks, if it’s flooded forget it.
New South Wales and ACT
Any forecast that includes the phrase “it won’t be a washout” warrants a backup plan if you are envisaging an alfresco Christmas lunch this year.
Showers, storms and humidity are expected to continue for New South Wales east of the ranges, with “hit and miss” storms for Christmas Day.
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Sydney and Canberra are both forecast to reach the high 20s with the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
West of the range though, things are expected to be warm and sunny.
For the first day of the Sydney to Hobart Sydney is expected to have north-easterly winds, which would encourage a fast start to the race, followed by a cold front moving through in the following days.
But as Mr Narramore reiterates, this is all very far out to be accurate with the exact timing.
Victoria
Mr Narramore says Christmas Day is looking cool for southern parts of the state, with temperatures in the low 20s.
“Fresh in the morning but it should be nice in the afternoon,” according to Mr Narramore.
Northern Victoria is expected to be a bit warmer with temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s.
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“A great day for backyard cricket,” Mr Narramore said.
Speaking of cricket, Mr Narramore says temperatures are likely to be in the low to mid 20s for the opening day of the all-important Boxing Day Test.
“A low chance of precipitation at this stage,” for day one according to Mr Narramore.
Tasmania
It is expected to be a cool Christmas Day in the southern isles, with maximum temperatures in the teens “flirting” with the low 20s.
Hobart is expected to have a max of 17C with light showers but generally a mostly fine day.
In the meantime
A series of troughs and plenty of tropical moisture is expected to keep things moist for much of the north and east between now and Christmas Day.
Soggy conditions are expected to continue for much of the country for the week leading up to Christmas.(Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
According to Mr Narramore, a low pressure system could develop in the north west.
“The monsoon has developed across northern Australia and we could see a tropical low develop within that trough over the weekend,” he said.
“We currently expect that low to move towards the south west in the coming days from the Top End down into the Kimberly.”
The low is then expected to go roughly down the WANT border as we move into next week.
But it has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, according to Mr Narramore.
A series of troughs are set to keep things moist for much of the country over the next few days.(Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
The east coast cyclone watch is looking quiet for now.
“At this stage, we see no signs of any tropical activity in the Coral Sea as we move into the end of December,” he said.
The peak cyclone season for Queensland is usually February and March but cyclone status can change quickly and cyclones are notoriously difficult to predict.
